Climate Abandonment Areas

Published in the journal, Nature-Communications, this research integrates observed historic trends of population change, along with flood risk information, to uncover climate migration trends that are occurring in many high flood risk areas across the country. The research highlights the emergence of “Climate Abandonment Areas,” which are locations that have lost population from 2000 - 2020 and can be directly attributed to climate change related flood risk.

The researchers used the Census Bureau’s most recent full population count data at its most granular level, the Census Block, with the First Street Foundation’s property specific flood risk data. Through this process, “tipping points” were found where thresholds of high flood risk directly impacted population change by varying degrees. These tipping points are projected into the future using future flood and baseline population projections, revealing where future Climate Abandonment Areas will emerge.